November 6, 2018

Well, it’s here – finally. Election Day 2018. All the cable news network will be pushing out beautiful stages with phrases and logos to make it all sound so important and official. It’s too bad they’re all full of shit to the point where I want to barf. All these talking heads all spouting the same conventional wisdom which means they only know what the major news and cable news networks polls tell them: pollsters who haven’t changed their antiquated methodologies because if they did they know they’d lose all credibility with their friends and families who work at the same damned places. They all eat together and swill chardonnay together at same bars and cocktail parties, they all read the same newspapers and get their news from the same news sources. They live and whore themselves in their elitist, echo chamber bubble, and they still can’t for the life of them believe Hillary Clinton isn’t president.

They’re all so friggin’ smug in their beliefs that they know best, that if only those yahoos who live outside the Beltway or more than twenty miles inland from the coasts were as smart and sophisticated by then, well, they’d see that Donald Trump is Hitler and a racist, sexist totalitarian brute who doesn’t belong in the Oval Office. (Which, as far as I’m concerned, is OK – everyone can think what they want.) The problem is these folks push polls solely and purely in the interests of gaining headlines on the network and cable news shows they all ascribe to in order to further their political agenda. In that way, their just a bunch of lazy cowards. One would have thought that having their reputations shredded after their performance in 2016 they’d know better. But why change when your goal is to put the Republicans and Donald Trump out of business and you’ve got all these media avenues still willing to publish your shit even when they know it’s shit?

The Great White Shank doesn’t do polls. He doesn’t care about polls. He spits on polls (well, not literally!). What he does do is pay attention to trends, the kind of trends you can only discern by using news sources on both sides of the political aisle to detect trends in optimism and pessimism. He stays away from the cable news networks – PERIOD. He knows when he’s being gaslighted and lied to – after all, you can’t bullshit a bull-shitter. You don’t have to read pages and pages of stuff – just pick out your news sources and see what the trends appear to be – like Bob Dylan sang, “you don’t have to be a weatherman to know which way the wind blows.”

The Great White Shank also follows those numbers guys on Twitter who themselves are either numbers guys or who themselves have numbers guys they rely on. Folks like Richard Baris, Florida Guy, and the incomparable Larry Schweikart. Sure, they bend to the conservative side of the aisle, but they don’t put out crap to push their own personal agendas like the pollsters do. If a Republican candidate’s campaign is sucking wind, they’ll not only tell you – more importantly, they’ll tell you why. These guys are not only good, they have a network behind them that eat, sleep, and drink numbers – as in real numbers.

And finally, I have my contact up in the GOP party hierarchy. I won’t ever reveal his/her name, but he/she knows shit like you wouldn’t believe. The info he/she gave me in 2016 helped support the anecdotal evidence I had personally accumulated over time and the trends I had interpreted on my own that Donald Trump was going to beat Hillary Clinton. Not only does he/she know what’s happening on the Republican side, he/she knows what’s going down on the Democrat side as well. For example, I knew that Hillary Clinton wasn’t going to Wisconsin well before others did. And I kept my mouth shut like I was told because everyone was afraid she’d realize how big a mistake she was making. And I knew that Michigan was going to be a surprise. I trust my contact implicitly.

So here’s what I see:
1. The size of the rallies Donald Trump is getting ought to be the #1 political story of the year. And the fact they’re not being covered is a disgrace to the media and everything it is supposed to stand for. Why? Because the midterms are all about voter enthusiasm!! It’s not a presidential election, so folks have to be willing to go the polls. Look at the lines at Trump’s rallies. If folks are willing to stand outside for 8 hours in the hope of getting in, don’t you think they’ll be willing to travel 10-15 minutes and wait in line for an hour to go vote? And, bring their friends with them?

2. African-American support for Donald Trump – especially among black males – appears to be to some degree higher than in 2016. The AA vote is so critical to Democrats, even a small percentage choosing to vote in a midterm election and, worse, to pull the lever for Republicans, ought to frighten the crap out of liberals and Democrats everywhere.

3. The GOP has crushed the early voting all over the place. Typically, it’s the Democrats that push up the numbers in EV, while Republicans tend to get out on Election Day. The fact that the Democrats have lost that advantage this year bodes very well for GOP hopes.

4. The Democrats have no message beyond resisting Trump, hating Trump, and ridiculing Trump. That’s not a message that’s going to get your base out in a midterm election.

5. Most importantly, it’s the tangibles. The Kavanaugh hearings, ANTIFA, the caravan, the endless and countless barbs thrown the way of Republicans and conservatives, and the daily abuse President Trump gets from the media on a daily basis – well, all I can tell you is the natives are restless and are thirsting to send yet another message to the elites and the media just like they did in 2016. “Cold anger” it’s called, and it makes folks willing to crawl over broken glass to vote against the elites so their voice is heard. This is what has the Democrats scared most. And let me tell you, don’t believe what CNN and the Democrats and their political operatives in the mainstream media are saying. They are scared shitless. How else do you explain the likes of Vox’s Ezra Klein already looking for excuses for a Democratic fiasco?

Bottom line: I think I have as good an idea as anyone as to what’s going to happen tomorrow. Maybe I’m wrong, but I don’t think so. So without further adieu here are my predictions:

The Republicans will safely retain the House of Representatives, sending Democrats and the loony left into fits and back to their therapists and parents’ basements. I don’t see the GOP gaining seats – that would be the ultimate of ultimate fiascos for the Democrats. A bunch of folks see the GOP retaining the house with only 5-10 seats to spare; my personal prediction is the GOP loses only four seats. Basically it’s a wash.

The Republicans will expand their lead in the Senate by anywhere from 5-7 seats. My prediction is they’ll have 57 by the end of the night, but it very well could go higher. My personal upset special is John James in Michigan, but it also wouldn’t surprise me to see that corrupt pervert Bob Menendez go down in New Jersey. I would love-love-love to make Geoff Diehl my upset choice over Elizabeth Warren, but we are, after all, talking about the People’s Republic of Massachusetts. So, unfortunately, no soup for you, Geoff.

My states to watch: New Hampshire (which, BTW, with their revised voting requirements will go for Trump in 2020) has a couple of interesting congressional districts that could flip blue to red. Minnesota (which I also believe will go for Trump in 2020) could be very interesting. And, of course, Michigan, which, if it sends John James to the Senate the Democrats could be facing a very long night.

I do believe the sheer size and breadth of the GOP vote is going to shock a lot of people.

We’ll find out if I’m right soon enough.

Filed in: Uncategorized by The Great White Shank at 01:06 | Comment (1)
1 Comment
  1. Both sides are angry, and both sides are scared. It just depends on who’s angrier and scared more.

    Makes this election a coin toss, especially in swing districts and purple states.

    I’m saying 2 seat majority either way in the House, because I don’t know which way that will go. I think the GOP will pick up 3 seats in the Senate, but no more. ND, MO and MT flip to red. Outside chance in FL, but Nelson is very entrenched.

    Comment by Dave Richard — November 6, 2018 @ 12:43 pm

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