October 30, 2016

[Ed. note: with everything going on I forgot to upload this post on October 30. So I’m back-posting…]

It took a little bit of doing (the promise of beers the next time we play Stonecreek Golf Club would do), but I was able to talk to the guy I referred to in my last “State of the Race” post a second time. One might note that his prediction about Hillary pulling out of the final debate was off, and Trump’s tax returns still haven’t been released (something he’s still sticking with, BTW), but his prediction about African-American voters appears to be spot on. We talked about the state of the race only ten days out from Election Day, and here are the highlights:

1. His sense is that Trump is still holding a +6 lead nationwide, and that in the end he’s gonna come in somewhere around 49% of the vote and Hillary Clinton around 43%.

2. He notes that while the polls appear to be tightening somewhat in Trump’s favor, most of the media polls are still heavily oversampling Democrats over Republicans (anywhere from 5 to 15 percent) but that will change in the next week if the pollsters want to have any credibility come Election Day. He things in the end it will be anywhere whom an even D/R split to at best a D+2.

3. If you want to know where the campaigns think the race stands watch the candidates, where they’re going, and the venues they are choosing. He notes the Trump campaign is totally focused on Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Ohio, but he expects that to change in the next week as he believe Florida and Ohio are solidly Trump and Trump may expand his map to places like New Hampshire and Michigan. The Clinton campaign remains (at least to him) a total mystery: “Trump is filling convention centers and they’re having trouble filling anything larger than a gym. The candidate is deliberately choosing low-profile events and relying on surrogates like Barack and Michelle Obama to do her work. Either her campaign is overwhelmingly confident – hard to believe if they’re looking at the same polls I am- or they’re living in their own self-made bubble. I don’t get it. I think she’s getting lousy advice.”

4. Ten days is still a lot of time – an eternity, really – and a lot could happen in that time. But right now I’m saying that, just like every other time during this election season, the Trump campaign is turning conventional wisdom on its head. All things staying equal, it still looks really good for Trump.

Filed in: Politics & World Events by The Great White Shank at 17:03 | Comments Off on A Post I Forgot To Post
October 26, 2016

….courtesy of – believe it or not – Michael Moore.

He’s not voting for Trump, mind you, but he’s nailed this election for sure. He explains why the great unwashed (and the great in-polled) out there are voting for Trump, why the polls (at least for now) aren’t showing the Trump vote, but why it’s 100% gonna happen, baby.

Thank you, Michael, for saying it better than I could ever say.

Filed in: Politics & World Events by The Great White Shank at 17:09 | Comments Off on Why Trump Will Win
October 25, 2016

Apologies for the lack of posting, lots going on here with work and other stuff. I know I’ve been bad, hope to catch up on things over the next day or so with a special “state of the race” update. Hopefully, “my guy” in AZ politics will let me talk with him for a few minutes tomorrow!

Oh, my World Series prediction? Cubs in 6. Theo does it again, and as a result he’s already punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame.

You want to know why more people than you could ever imagine are going to vote for Donald Trump? Scott Adams of “Dilbert” fame tells you why:

I’ve been trying to figure out what common trait binds Clinton supporters together. As far as I can tell, the most unifying characteristic is a willingness to bully in all its forms.

If you have a Trump sign in your lawn, they will steal it.

If you have a Trump bumper sticker, they will deface your car.

if you speak of Trump at work you could get fired.

On social media, almost every message I get from a Clinton supporter is a bullying type of message. They insult. They try to shame. They label. And obviously they threaten my livelihood.

We know from Project Veritas that Clinton supporters tried to incite violence at Trump rallies. The media downplays it.

Yes, yes, I realize Trump supporters say bad things about Clinton supporters too. I don’t defend the bad apples on either side. I’ll just point out that Trump’s message is about uniting all Americans under one flag. The Clinton message is that some Americans are good people and the other 40% are some form of deplorables, deserving of shame, vandalism, punishing taxation, and violence. She has literally turned Americans on each other. It is hard for me to imagine a worse thing for a presidential candidate to do.

I’ll say that again.

As far as I can tell, the worst thing a presidential candidate can do is turn Americans against each other. Clinton is doing that, intentionally.

You can mock Trump all you want (and I know friends and family members who do) but nothing speaks more about the heart of a candidate than how they communicate to their supporters. With Hillary, it’s “I’m with Her.” With Trump it’s “I’m with You.”

I’m sick of the divisiveness Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and the Democrats have inflicted on this country the past eight years. I’m sick of the playing one group against another. I’m sick of the in-your-face lies, deceptions, and corruption. And I’m sick of the Republicans who are so afraid of the mainstream media and losing their power and influence that they do nothing in the face of it. We are all Americans. Maybe we deserve what we get as far as our national leadership goes, but I’d like to think we’re better than that as a people. And it’s about time we had a candidate who sees us that way.

Make America Great Again!

Filed in: Uncategorized by The Great White Shank at 23:36 | Comments Off on A Break in the Action
October 19, 2016

Man, am I glad these debates are over with. It’s not just because I’m tired of Hillary Clinton’s abject repulsiveness as a candidate – she’s not just unlikeable, her entire being has a total and complete aversion to telling the truth in any way, manner, or form – but because of the sheer media bullshit that surrounds these so-called “events”. The American public would be far better off having a moderator that just starts things off and lets both candidates have at each other for ninety minutes.

I’ll give FOX News’ Chris Wallace grudging approval for asking some tough questions, but when all is said and done he allowed Hillary to pontificate for far too long and seemed to cut off Trump when you could sense The Donald wanted to zero in for a kill. Still, the debate was not without substance, and I was surprised to see Trump hold his own against a seasoned candidate of thirty years who couldn’t even adequately defend the Clinton Foundation’s so called “charity” efforts when offered the opportunity. The fact a woman can lie with such a straight face in the face of countless allegations and media scrutiny is almost frightening to behold. Hard to believe. Hard to believe that she really believes that shit.

In the end, of course, it will all come down to the question of who won the debate. The Great White Shank never looks at “events” like this in such abstract lines. The bottom line, as I see it, is that you have an election between a total Washington insider and a total political outsider. Approximately 70% of the country thinks the country is on the wrong track. Barack Obama’s approval rating stands at 55%, but know that at least half that number allows for his personality and achievements with liberals alone. In a setting such as that you have a career politician go head-to-head with a total political outsider for three debates, over which said political outsider (at worst) battled to a draw in two (the first and last) and out-right won the second.

In my view (and I might be wrong but I highly doubt it given my political analytical chops) what Trump was trying to do was solidify the Republican base while reaching out where he could to traditional Democrats who normally would have no problem voting for their party’s candidate. Trump knows that Hillary’s unfavorables are sky-high and that the more people see her the more they are repulsed by her utter phoniness and unlikeability. His statements on the 2nd amendment and Supreme Court justices were spot on, and will help him in states like Utah and Nevada.

Donald Trump didn’t need to hit a home run in the final debate. All he had to do was show he could share a stage with Hillary Clinton without looking like some dangerous, unhinged moron. Not only did he do that, I thought, but like a good fighter does, he picked and chose when to punch and did it well. In a presidential “change election” where there is no incumbent running, all the outsider has to do is show he belongs. Which Donald Trump did tonight.

Filed in: Politics & World Events by The Great White Shank at 22:02 | Comments Off on The Final Debate

Three votes for Donald Trump sent out in the mail today. Three votes for John McCain (I had to hold my nose for that one, but sometimes you do what you gotta do!). Most importantly, I’ve resigned permanently from the Republican Party and will do my electoral bidding from here on out as an unaffiliated voter. It wasn’t that hard – after having to deal with that duplicitous scoundrel weasel-coward Paul Ryan and the likes of Mitch McConnell and the do-nothings in the Republican having to deal with the Republican-controlled (a joke phrase if there ever was one!) Congress that has done nothing but kissed Barack Obama’s a$$ and allowed him to destroy this country over the past 7 1/2 years it was actually quite easy. Not to mention freeing.

Screw you Paul Ryan! Make America Great Again!

Filed in: Politics & World Events by The Great White Shank at 16:17 | Comments Off on Unaffiliated
October 18, 2016

I remember the good old days. We’ve been here in the Valley of the Sun for thirteen – count ’em, thirteen! – years now, and the weather tradition has always been that come the second or third week of October you get that one day where all of a sudden the heat gods swip the flitch and boom! the daily highs drop into the luxurious 80s and that marvelous time of year known as “Arizona winter” has arrived.

Not so this year, and from the looks of the Accuweather forecast for 85234, we might be waiting a few weeks yet. Sure, next Monday is supposed to drop into the 80s, but the daily highs go right back up into the 90s through the end of the month when the temps may actually flirt with triple digits.

It’s so disheartening. We’ve been in the 90s since early May and, sun angle and lengths of days aside, there is still bona fide heat in the air come the witching hours of 3-6 PM. This time of year one ought to be able to slip out of work early or finish the weekend chores a little earlier to hit a bucket of balls without working up a sweat but we’re not there yet.

It looks like if I’m going to find some truly fall weather it will have to be when I head back to Massachusetts the last week of October. I guarantee there won’t be too much short sleeves and shorts weather there and then. But it will sure feel like fall and that would be nice for a little while at least.

BTW, the swimming pool is still somewhat swimmable (although it would be a bracer, no doubt) at 72 degrees. This is the longest I can remember our pool still being in the 70s. It’s refreshing to stick your legs in while contemplating life and death and other big issues like the Red Sox after David Ortiz and when Tiger will find the guts to play in a PGA Tour event, but 72 would make for one chilly swim.

Filed in: Uncategorized by The Great White Shank at 21:55 | Comments Off on How Can I MIss You, Summer, If You Won’t Go Away?
October 16, 2016

Congratulations to The Great White Shank for being a winner of Endless Summer Quarterly‘s fall edition contest. That’s me holding a limited edition 50th anniversary Pet Sounds LP signed by the surviving Beach Boys Brian Wilson, Mike Love, Al Jardine, and Bruce Johnston, and the letter from ESQ announcing the great news.

Gotta get that sucker framed!

Filed in: Uncategorized by The Great White Shank at 19:02 | Comments Off on Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!
October 14, 2016

Everyone who visits this site knows that The Great White Shank’s political chops are flawless. One of the reasons – outside of some honest, ingrained political acumen culled from decades of deep dives into various political campaigns and countless books on politics – is connections with folks “in the know”. It might seem hard to believe – and my brother Dave (the only real politico in the family) would probably testify to this – but, while politics on the federal and state levels is played all over the place and in fifty states, it’s actually a pretty small universe. Everyone either knows everyone or knows someone who knows someone who knows everyone. In politics, the usual six degrees of separation is really only three. And while I don’t travel in Arizona politics much, I know folks who do, and the folks they know are, as they say, truly “in the know”. So you can take with a grain of salt what I’m saying or you can ignore it at your risk.

One final caveat: anyone who has ever immersed themselves in politics will tell you that the only thing you really know is where things stand right now. We’re a little over three weeks away from election day, and in politics – and especially with this election – that’s a lifetime away. That being said, here is what seems to me to be the lay of the land twenty-four days out:

1. Forget about the polls and what the pollsters are saying. The fact is, no one really knows what’s going on out there. The pollsters are having a very hard time figuring out who exactly is truly undecided. My guy seems to think the number of undecided at this point is only about 6%. The folks with Clinton aren’t going to vote for Trump, and the Trump folks aren’t going to vote for Clinton. Under any circumstances. The electorate is so polarized right now it would take a truly unexpected and cataclysmic event to change folks minds. And the WikiLeaks releases designed to shame Clinton and the “groping girls” designed to shame Trump don’t count as cataclysmic.

2. If my guy had to hazard a guess, he’s thinking Trump is up ~ 6 points nationwide. There’s no way Hillary is up – if she were the Democrats wouldn’t be pushing the woman issue so hard. The Dems know they can’t get their voters to the polls for Hillary – his view is that no nominee in modern history has ever had so little enthusiasm for a candidate – so the only alternative is to scorch-earth Trump. The problem is (and the Democrats know this) Trump has been so protective of his brand over the years that, while he’s never been a choir boy by any stretch of the imagination, he’s also never been as reckless as the Dems would have you believe.

3. The pollsters are freaking out about the undeclared Trump voter. Keep in mind that Trump voters have already been assaulted at Trump rallies, they won’t put stickers on their cars or signs on their lawns due to the fears of vandalism, and they won’t tell pollsters who they’re truly supporting. They’re afraid of ridicule by their friends and family members, and afraid of reprisal in their employment. My guy says he’s never seen anything like it, he truly fears for what might happen were Trump to win. The pollsters know this, they know folks are telling them one thing and planning on another in the sanctity of the voting booth, they just don’t know how widespread it is.

4. It sounds strange to me, but my guy says the numbers really haven’t moved for about 2-3 months. Even the debates haven’t changed anything. Folks are tuning in, for sure, but it’s mostly for entertainment purposes. Like he says, the pot of undecided voters is far smaller than the pollsters would have you believe.

5. My guy says there is one state out there absolutely no one is even talking about as far as being a battleground state is concerned, and that Trump is going to carry it handily. He says if folks really knew what that state was all hell would break loose because it would change the electoral map so radically. He says the Clinton folks know and the Trump folks know, but no one is willing to go public. I tried to pry it out of him but he wouldn’t budge.

6. My guy says Trump can expect somewhere around 15-20 percent of the African-American vote, and perhaps 37-40% of the Hispanic vote. Again, a lot could change between now and November 8, but if it doesn’t, “that, my friend, is the election.”

7. My guy says he wouldn’t be surprised if Hillary pulls out of the final debate, using the supposed Trump “sex scandals” as an excuse. It would be a risky move on her part, but, as he says, “her campaign is really running out the clock because that’s the best strategy for her at this time. The less folks see of her the better, and her campaign knows that.” My guy also says Hillary’s health problems are worse than anyone knows. I told him I thought the whole thing was a alt-right crock of you-know-what, but he was adamant. I checked – her campaign only has one campaign event – one! – scheduled for her between now and election day. “Who is their right mind would do such a thing?”, says my guy. I didn’t have a good answer for that.

8. My guy says Trump is releasing his tax returns sometime next week, says the whole hub-bub over it was Trump’s idea not to play by anyone’s rules but his own. “And wait ’til you see how he does it – it will be truly remarkable.”

9. The Clinton campaign’s biggest concern right now? Weather. If any of the battleground states get bad weather on November 8 that’s going to be a problem. They know Trump supporters will crawl over broken glass to vote for him, her campaign knows she needs perfect weather conditions to get her voters out.

10. I asked my guy for a prediction. “I don’t do predictions”, say he. They’re very dangerous, there’s still too much time between now and November 8.” I ask him to tell me this: will it be close? He just smiled.

Like I say, take it for what it is.

Filed in: Politics & World Events by The Great White Shank at 21:59 | Comments Off on State Of The Race
October 13, 2016

Target Handicap: 18.1
Location: Las Vegas National Golf Club
Score: 52 + 54 = 106
Handicap: 23.6 / Trend: 23.9 (+0.3)

Not the greatest round of golf I’ve ever played – in fact, it was pretty mediocre by my new standards. But if there was such a thing as giving one’s self a mulligan I’m inclined to make this an occasion. I can’t say I was hungover – I wasn’t – but on my fourth day in Vegas I can honestly say I was pretty much tapped out. But that didn’t mean it wasn’t a great day to play golf and it didn’t have a great time playing with the couple the pro shop paired me up with from Lichtenstein. That’s right – Lichtenstein.

Before I get to the golf, I’d like to just state that in all my travels – and there have been quite a few – I’ve never come close to playing with people as rich as Karl and Edna were. How rich were they? Rich enough that they come to Vegas and stay at the Wynn for two weeks – count ’em – two weeks – every year. And it’s not as if they’re staying in the standard 750-ft. room with king bed – no, they’re staying in a suite. For two weeks! And they don’t even gamble!

They were very nice people who right off the top begged my indulgence by saying Edna was learning to play golf and that it might be a little slow out there. I didn’t care – heck, I figure the longer I’m outside of the Wynn / Encore boundaries I’m probably actually making money simply by not being there. They were right: Edna was pretty bad, but we weren’t being pressed by anyone behind us, Karl (he a very savvy 10-handicap) insisted on paying for cocktails before, during and after, and the day was lovely.

Having driven up I had my clubs with me and hit the ball great on the range. I’m at the point now where my swing and the results are pretty predictable, and the things I’m working on – my play from 100 yards in – is the kind of thing you can improve upon only by playing. Enjoying glasses of Moët & Chandon on the patio afterwards (my offer of Pinot Grigios respectfully declined), we traded stories of Vegas long ago (when the town was greater than it is now but not as great as it was before then), how they were friends with Siegfried and Roy, how they travel the world on Silversea cruises, the stars they’ve met and the places they’ve been. They were beyond rich, but very nice, very down to earth, and appreciative of my sharing an enjoyable, carefree round of golf with them.

Karl was a cool guy. very competitive on the course but in a nice way. Before we teed off, over Coronas on the patio I had bought as a gesture of friendship and goodwill (this was before I found out how rich they were!) he asked me about my game. When I told him I was a 24-handicap with a goal of getting to an 18, he said in kind of a funny way that he’d be the judge of that. I thought that was kind of a strange comment, but he was so nice and so enthusiastic about playing it really didn’t make a mark one way or the other.

OK, on to the golf. The final tally was five fairways hit, 39 putts, and only one green in regulation. I had been driving the ball pretty well all year, but on this day I repeatedly found myself, even if just off the fairway, out of position. Whenever I made a good shot it was all recovery recover recovery. Whenever I found myself in great poition to hit a green in regulation I just couldn’t do it. My short game was tolerable, but the greens were exceedingly slow and I just (once again, I might add) couldn’t make the adjustment.

Case in point, the par 5 seventh. Playing from the back tees, a tight fairway with a slight dogleg left to a slightly elevated tee, I pulverized a drive that for the only time of the day beat Karl by a few yards. I followed up with an equally-impressive 5-wood that left me 20 yards short of the green. So now Karl and I are sitting next to each other, he just a yard behind me, laying two. He chips to five feet, being careful to leave it below the hole. I, on the other hand, chip it twelve feet past and above the hole. I’ve got a downhill putt and leave it five feet short. My second putt is two feet short. My third putt goes one foot past the hole. You get the picture: I four-putted for a seven. Karl misses his birdie putt but sinks it for a par.

And that was the day. Oh, there were a couple of holes I simply blew out: two sliced drives into a swimming pool on #6, two more balls into a neighbor’s yard on #16, but more often than not it was just mediocre golf – something I find myself getting all too good at. When I needed to make a putt I couldn’t. When I was in the go-zone for a green in regulation I couldn’t make the shot. But when I was forced to make something fancy out of trouble – heck, I was like Seve out there!

“You have very good swing, my friend”, says Karl over our second glass of Moët, my back starting to tighten up and my head starting to long for a whirlpool at the Encore Spa, “but you won’t achieve your goal without having a good game. You are so very close. I learned a long time ago that strokes are like women – the fewer the better. (I’d never heard that one before.) Right now you’re worrying too much about the shot you are making, you’re not playing the hole. There’s a big difference! You play defensively not to make a mistake when you should be attacking – always! These are all things that you have the ability to do, I’m sure of it. Just have confidence!”

I’m not sure Karl is right, but, basking in the 103-degree whirlpool at the Encore Spa I can understand where he’s coming from. Maybe he’s right, maybe it is a confidence thing. Maybe I still haven’t gotten over the old days when disaster was always lurking around the corner, a shanked 7-iron away. I mean, I can play double-bogey golf now with my eyes closed. Maybe there is something to this idea of fearing success on a golf course. Or maybe it’s all bullshit. Just hit the friggin’ ball, right?

There’s a hurdle here I need to get over. I’m not exactly sure what that hurdle is, but I have to stop sabotaging myself. It’s a frustrating thing. And until I figure it out I’m going to remain in this gray zone where nothing is really happening, just mediocre scores being put up on the scorecard with memories of all those opportunities pissed away as if strokes don’t mean a thing.

Filed in: Golf Quest,Uncategorized by The Great White Shank at 00:35 | Comments Off on Crapped Out In Vegas
October 10, 2016

So baseball in Boston is over for another year, just in time for the first freeze watches to be out. Between now and Opening Day 2017 there are a lot of leaves and not a small amount of snow to fall. The David Ortiz era is over, and the Red Sox in 2017 should have quite a different look than they do now. A few thoughts and comments about where things go from here.

1. I’m pretty sure manager John Farrell stays – after all, how do you dump a manager that got you to the post-season? But he really doesn’t deserve it. He was out-managed by Terry Francona in the playoffs, was out-managed on virtually every occasion that warranted it during the season, and couldn’t handle a bullpen if you gave it to him in a shopping bag. I’m not sure what kind of a motivator he is with younger players, but you can bet the Sox are going to get younger next year, and I’m not sure Farrell is the guy you want to have manage that. Unfortunately, he’ll probably be back, but on a very short leash.

2. While I love Jackie Bradley, Jr. in CF he’s too streaky a player on a team that’s already streaky. I’m guessing he’s trade bait at the Winter Meetings and should bring something very nice in return. That allows Mookie Betts to go to center, and hopefully the Sox find some punch and a decent defender in right field.

3. Andrew Benetendi is a keeper. Can’t wait to see him mature with some experience under his belt. He could be a star.

4. I hate to say it, but you’re probably looking at The Return of Pablo “Fat Pig” Sandoval at third base next year if he’s able to keep distance between him and the Golden Corral “Blue Plate Special”. He can’t do a hell of a lot worse than Travis Shaw did – he had one good month and a half and showed he was nothing more than a decent AAA player who got killed once big-league pitchers figured out his weaknesses. The guy never learned to adjust, so see you later, alligator.

5. Hanley Ramirez had a great year and I look forward to seeing him again at first base next year.

6. I hope Dave Dombrowski doesn’t go apeshit trying to replace David Ortiz. You can’t replace “Big Papi” – there will never be another like him. But he’ll still need to consider carefully how he wants to handle the DH spot next year.

7. You can bet the Sox will be in the market or a pitcher at the Winter Meetings. David Price sucked this year but Sox ownership made that bed a long time ago when they dissed Jon Lester. They’ve still got a damned good core with Price / Porcello / Rodriguez / Buchholz, but another starter wouldn’t hurt.

8. Dustin Pedroia is going to be a problem. The guy can still play, for sure, and with Papi gone his role as a leader on the team is going to be even more important. But he can’t play an entire year as your everyday second baseman. He plays too hard, and John Farrell never rested him enough. By the end of the season he was toast. Gotta keep that in mind for next year.

9. The biggest issue is going to be rebuilding the bullpen. I’m guessing – thanks to Farrell’s mismanagement – they’ve gotten all they can out of Junichi Tazawa, which is too bad. Koji Uehara should be brought back. Closer Craig Kimbrel was OK but he needs to pitch better. The rest of the bunch you can have for a bag of balls.

10. The Sox need to find a backup for Xander Bogearts – another player Farrell drove into the ground so that he was all but useless the last month of the season. Somebody’s gonna need to be a suitable backup for Bogearts and Pedroia.

11. It wouldn’t bother me if Jerry Remy doesn’t come back to the NESN broadcast booth as analyst next year. He was great with Don Orsilllo, but his style never meshed with Dave O’Brien’s, and, frankly, he got on my nerves all year long. He had a great run for a long time, especially with DO, but his time is past.

12. That being said, anytime Dennis Eckersley shares the booth with O’Brien that’s OK by me. Loved listening to his commentary all year long.

Overall, it was a good year, one that my Mom would have been proud of. She loved her Sox, and I feel bad she missed seeing Big Papi’s farewell – I think she would have liked that. It’s always sad when baseball in Boston comes to a close, but the feeling is much more muted here in Arizona when it’s still sunny and the temperatures are in the 90s. Here there is still lots of golf to be played. The Sox overachieved much of this year, but over the last three weeks – hey, timing is everything – picked the worst time to slump as a team. I think Farrell’s management style had a lot to do with that, but that’s the way it goes.

This off-season ought to be most interesting because both the Sox and the dreaded Yankees are on the ascendancy. Next year I’m guessing these two teams will be back to being the great rivals they are, fighting it out one memorable series after another. That’s something to look forward to!

Filed in: Golf & Sports by The Great White Shank at 21:41 | Comments (2)


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