November 3, 2011

We’re just two itty-bitty months away from the Iowa caucuses and things on the GOP front are just as fluid as ever. In fact, things are so fluid that anyone who tries to use any poll from anywhere to try and predict what will happen in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida – the first four contests – is just whistlin’ Dixie as far as I’m concerned.

Still, without an opinion what good is talking politics? So here, from bottom to top is The Great White Shank’s assessment of where the race stands currently.

8. Jon Huntsman – the former governor of Utah hasn’t moved the needle much, if at all, since his entry in the race. His performances during the debates thus far has been positively forgettable – in fact, after the last GOP debate analysts everywhere said it was Houseman’s best performance to date. The only problem? He wasn’t at that debate.

7. Michele Bachmann – I had great hopes for her at the outset, even though my brother Dave – a staunch conservative if there ever was one – called her “batshit crazy”. She came out of the gates forceful and strong, but then got off message by attacking Texas Gov. Rick Perry in the first debate over Gardasil, then refused to back down from her crazy assertion that it caused mental retardation. As it turns out, her message has turned out to be rather thin gruel indeed – sure, she’s a “fighter” in the House of Representatives against Obamacare (nothing wrong with that) but if I hear her say one more time how many children she has raised and helped foster I’ll scream. She’s run a lousy campaign, and I’ve always believed that if you want to see how well people govern, see how they run their campaigns.

6. Rick Santorum – there’s something about this guy I just cannot warm up to. His debate performances have featured a snarkly, petty, and rude persona, and I don’t know how you get beyond that. Still, if there’s one candidate who has the ability to make some headway given Herman Cain’s recent issues, it’s Santorum. He’s a bona-fide social conservative, and he may just turn out to be the anti-Romney crowd’s alternative in Iowa. But he needs a rock-solid debate performance next time out to start getting some traction. He’s one to watch.

5. Ron Paul – more likely, in my view, to run as a Libertarian third-party candidate than someone who will win the GOP nomination. Which would, in turn, get us another four years of Barack Obama and his divisive, America- and capitalism-hating socialist cronies. Maybe if Paul goes third party then Sarah Palin and Donald Trump also go third-party and the 2012 election becomes a free-for-all. Of course, getting on the ballot is much harder than it appears. While there’s no doubt the guy is intelligent and is clear about what he stands for and doesn’t, his message is too esoteric for me.

4. Rick Perry – his candidacy announcment was a home run hit straight out of the ballpark, but since then he’s been awful as a candidate. Sure, calling people who disagree with Texas’ policy of giving illegals tuition breaks at state universities “heartless” was a huge blunder, but his undeclared war against Mitt Romney made him look petty and small, and his debate performances have been, to be kind, uneven. He seems incapable of finding a strong and steady campaign message and discipline to make people give him a second look, but there’s still time before Iowa for him to get his act together.

3. Newt Gingrich – has the air of a statesman but carries with him the stench of Washington politics. With 2012 being a true “anti-incumbent” election where anything associated with traditional Washington politics will be deemed “failure”, I have a hard time seeing how Newt, even given the fact he’s the most articulate and knowledgeable of all the GOP candidates, would fare in that kind of environment. I like Newt a lot, and there’s no doubt he could beat Barack Obama like a drum in any debate, but I don’t see how he attracts more than his loyal conservative following in a general election.

2. Herman Cain – no one is more disppointed in Herman Cain than I am. It has nothing to do with the allegations of sexual harrassment, which seem to me to be much ado about nothing. What bothers me is how both he and his campaign have responded to the charges. Undisciplined, uncertain, placing the blame everywhere else except where it belongs: on his campaign. It all started two weeks ago with his incoherent stance on abortion during that CNN interview. Shouldn’t be tough, right? But it took the better part of three days for people to figure out exactly what his position was. Then came the sexual harrassment allegations. Wouldn’t you think his campaign would have done the due diligence beforehand so that none of this would be a surprise?

Look, I love Herman, but I go back to what I said about Michele Bachmann’s campaign, I judge how a person is going to govern by how well they run their campaigns. If you run a campaign that is disciplined and stays on message, you can pretty much tell how well they will handle the heat if they end up (gasp!) winning. Cain’s prior strength was his ability to speak clearly and forcefully on the issues as a non-politician; he’s lost that big-time over the past couple of weeks, and his lack of experience in political campaigns is showing. The one thing he does have going for him is his inherent likeability; we’ll see if that can get him over this hump until and/or if he’s able to somehow get his campaign back on message.

1. Mitt Romney – conservatives hate the thought of him winning the GOP nomination, but the guy so far has run a virtually flawless campaign. By and large, he’s kept his focus on President Obama, not the other candidates, and that has elevated his candidacy to a point where he’s the one seen as most likely to be able to attract independents and stand toe-to-toe against the Obama machine in a general election campaign. Romney’s built himself a formidable campaign organization that will serve him well in the general election. The big question for him is, can he survive the GOP primaries? I think that’s a big question right now. If he wins Iowa, the aura of inevitability will start to take hold. Don’t kid yourselves: as much as true “conservatives” hate the idea of Romney being the party’s standard-bearer, they like the idea of someone who can beat Barack Obama far more.

Filed in: Politics & World Events by The Great White Shank at 00:43 | Comments (3)
3 Comments »
  1. Good perspective. I agree 100%. That said, you still haven’t given me a reason to get out of bed next November … ‘cept to go to work. I have not sat out a Presidential election since 1984 but I am seriously considering it. I don’t like any of these. I would vote against Newt, though.

    Comment by Rob — November 3, 2011 @ 11:20 am


  2. If I’m still alive I’m getting out of bed next NOvember. But after my first bloody mary don’t ask me what I’ll be doing next! 🙂

    Comment by The Great White Shank — November 3, 2011 @ 10:23 pm


  3. […] for an Adult to be Presi.. Is the Republican Party working for Barack Obama? | Political Realities GoodBoys Nation  – Archives   » State Of The Race POLITICAL WIRE’S HEADLINES – 11/3 « Accomack County Democ.. The Morning Flap: […]

    Pingback by The Libertarian: Who's it gonna be ? — November 10, 2011 @ 9:31 am


RSS feed for comments on this post. TrackBack URI

Leave a comment


goodboys.jpg


Search The Site



Recent Items

Categories

Archives
October 2020
September 2020
August 2020
July 2020
June 2020
May 2020
April 2020
March 2020
February 2020
January 2020
December 2019
November 2019
October 2019
September 2019
August 2019
July 2019
June 2019
May 2019
April 2019
March 2019
February 2019
January 2019
December 2018
November 2018
October 2018
September 2018
August 2018
July 2018
June 2018
May 2018
April 2018
March 2018
February 2018
January 2018
December 2017
November 2017
October 2017
September 2017
August 2017
July 2017
June 2017
May 2017
April 2017
March 2017
February 2017
January 2017
December 2016
November 2016
October 2016
September 2016
August 2016
July 2016
June 2016
May 2016
April 2016
March 2016
February 2016
January 2016
December 2015
November 2015
October 2015
September 2015
August 2015
July 2015
June 2015
May 2015
April 2015
March 2015
February 2015
January 2015
December 2014
November 2014
October 2014
September 2014
August 2014
July 2014
June 2014
May 2014
April 2014
March 2014
February 2014
January 2014
December 2013
November 2013
October 2013
September 2013
August 2013
July 2013
June 2013
May 2013
April 2013
March 2013
February 2013
January 2013
December 2012
November 2012
October 2012
September 2012
August 2012
July 2012
June 2012
May 2012
April 2012
March 2012
February 2012
January 2012
December 2011
November 2011
October 2011
September 2011
August 2011
July 2011
June 2011
May 2011
April 2011
March 2011
February 2011
January 2011
December 2010
November 2010
October 2010
September 2010
August 2010
July 2010
June 2010
May 2010
April 2010
March 2010
February 2010
January 2010
December 2009
November 2009
October 2009
September 2009
August 2009
July 2009
June 2009
May 2009
April 2009
March 2009
February 2009
January 2009
December 2008
November 2008
October 2008
September 2008
August 2008
July 2008
June 2008
May 2008
April 2008
March 2008
February 2008
January 2008
December 2007
November 2007
October 2007
September 2007
August 2007
July 2007
June 2007
May 2007
April 2007
March 2007
February 2007
January 2007
December 2006
November 2006
October 2006
September 2006
August 2006
July 2006
June 2006
May 2006
April 2006
March 2006
February 2006
January 2006


Blogroll

Syndication

4 Goodboys Only

Site Info