October 28, 2010

Less than five days to go before the November mid-terms, and I’ve stopped paying attention to the pollsters and what their polls and the talking heads on the cable networks are saying. It’s just my opinion – and take it for what y’all will – but the pollsters are unable to pick up three critical movements which I think will play a key role in the results of Tuesday night and leave them scratching their heads on Wednesday morning how they could have gotten it so wrong:

1. The Tea Party movement cannot be defined by the traditional Republican, Independent, or Democratic labels. There will be a significant number of voters being brought into the election process by their involvement (directly or indirectly) and/or support of the Tea Party movement. The mainstream dino-media has underestimated this movement from the start, and the pollsters who can’t help but follow so-called “conventional wisdom” are doing likewise. Tea Party voters come from all stripes: conservative Republicans, traditional unaffiliated or Independent voters, and what was once called “Reagan Democrats”. These voters don’t respond to pollsters and don’t care what the polls say – they just want to vote, and they will in larger numbers than the pollsters are picking up.

2. Union members who are registered Democrats will vote Republican in larger numbers than presumed. I guarantee you there are many union members out there that disagree with the politicization of their unions and the huge sums of money being spent by them on Democratic causes and candidates. What a union man says to his friends in the shop or to a pollster, and how they vote in the solitude of the voting booth will be shown to be two different things this year> This is something the pollsters aren’t picking it up, because they can’t.

3. The unpopularity of Barack Obama. All you have to do is watch where he’s campaigning, both in person and on the radio, to know that he knows just how bad things are – he’s going after the college towns and African-Americans to gin up enthusiasm. Considering how many votes he got in 2008, how much good will he brought with him to White House, and how much the mainstream dino-media slobbered all over him during the campaign and after he took office, the place he finds himself in politically is almost impossible to fathom. But, as I mentioned numerous times in this space, when you run as a uniter and a centrist, then reveal yourself to be a far-left progressive and a polarizing incompetent who picks fights with wide swaths of the American electorate, you get what you deserve.

All the usual national prognosticators on both sides of the aisle (Dick Morris being the exception) seem afraid to make any kind of radical predictions, preferring to speak in generalities and avoid being seen as too off base (after all, 2012 is just around the corner). Conventional wisdon says the Republican take control of the House by winning somewhere between 45-60 seats, and the Democrats retaining control of the Senate with the Republicans falling 2-3 seats short of a majority and winning perhaps 6-8 seats.

The Great White Shank is under no such constraints and isn’t afraid to be wrong – after all, no one listens to The Great White Shank, anyways, right? So here are my predictions: Republicans win a whopping 77 seats in the House and take control of the Senate as well. I think Barbara Boxer (CA) and Patty Murray (WA) are both going down, and it wouldn’t even surprise me if Christine O’Donnell were to pull off an upset in Delaware (and what an upset that would be!). Even if the Democrats are able to barely retain control of the Senate, the House defeat will be a crushing rebuke to the president, and set the stage for a Hillary Clinton (remember her?) challenge for the 2012 Democratic nomination – something I predict she will win.

So there you have it – maybe I’ll be right, maybe I’ll be wrong. I’m more comfortable with my House prediction than my Senate one, but isn’t that half the fun of predictions to begin with?

Pool temp: 68 degrees

Filed in: Politics & World Events by The Great White Shank at 00:47 | Comment (1)
1 Comment
  1. The House is gone with 64 seats moving Republican.

    GOP comes up even at 50, then Lieberman decides he’ll conference with the GOP to keep his committee chairmanships, making Biden a eunuch.

    Comment by Dave Richard — October 28, 2010 @ 2:51 am

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