August 4, 2006

Things are really starting to heat up in the Middle East. Israel is now in the process of destroying Hezbollah supply routes as fast as they can find them – something that is torking the Iranians off to no end. What’s really interesting (and ominous) to see is the increasing boldness by which Iran is starting to show it’s hand; it’s almost as if Iran is testing both Israel and its chief ally the U.S. in seeing just how far it can go, as if trying to set the table for some kind of a military response by Israel it can respond in kind to.

Over at The Belmont Club, there is a fascinating comment thread in response to this post about the effect of the Israel-Hezbollah conflict on Lebanon’s neighbors. Two commenters in particular – “SarahWeddington” and “WhatIs”Occupation” have been going back and forth on the wisdom of Israel’s strategy and what might be happening behind the scenes and in the near future. I’ve capsulized their “conversation” for your interest. (To make it easier to read I’ve put Sarah’s comments in bold):

SarahWeddington said…
If Israel was in some existential war they would have had 100K+ troops in Lebanon and there’d be more than a few hundred dead HB.

as i said before, arm chair generals should listen and study more and not be a source of bad vibes..

sarah, read about war here:

read about Parallel Warfare.

Understand that your impatience for the battle of the bulge is not really the way to win.

massive troops mean massive ISRAELI dead soldiers, by taking up a phased plan they have PLAYED the hezbollah, syrians and iranians perfectly, they have put the frog in the cold water and slowly turned the water up… be patient, think of this..

israel has flown 3000 + sorties downgrading all kinds of assets from roads, bridges, supply lines, BANKS, tv stations and more.

the best old hezbollah bitches can do is fire 200 rockets and kill 8 civilians at that rate 13,000 rockets = total israeli civilian to be killed 400.


Sarah: It’s obvious by now that Olmert will be gone by the end of the year and that he couldn’t stand the heat so he’ll be getting out of the kitchen.

again, maybe you should read what old olmert is doing, raids into gaza and west bank proceeding wonderfully, 100’s of terrorists DEAD. hamas TRYING to distance themselves from hezbollah and the world could give a crusty poop…

my have times changed..

Sarah: I think Israel’s strategy now is to provoke HB into hitting Tel Aviv so that they can nuke HB in Baalbek and take down Assad.

really? or maybe they are surrounding 25 or so hezbollah villages, moving 8 -10k of soldiers right up to the river? WHILE maintaining a watchful eye ON syria. While plinking hezbollah fighters daily.

sarah: The only other option is Olmert’s and Peretz’s incompetent leadership, although that makes more sense.

you have such little faith, patience

sarah: It looks like the Baalbek raid was now just for show.

sarah, yes for SHOW, they flew SLOW MOVING HELO’s 80 miles into the best protected air corridor in those parts, without ONE sam fired, landed killed and took prisoners and MORE importantly TOOK Faxes, computers and more got home safely..

quite the show… bravo…

sarah: I am utterly amazed that HB is able to fire 200+ a day unimpeded and that they’ve lost on avg 15 guys a day.

the days go by, all of those who wished to leave will have left.. it’s time to clean out the groves with napalm and cluster bombs, patience

sarah: This has really exposed the IDF.

actually no, the 200+ a day are not a “IDF” issue, your big battle plans could have exposed them, but thank g-d they didnt listen to your military advise…

sarah: Egypt, Jordan, Syria and Iran can do a lot more.

well Egypt & jordan wont do anything…

as for syria, i would bet those 500 syrian tanks could be dispatched in about 4 hours.. then what will syria do? shoot scuds? Damascus would burn faster than a mullah’s beard in a candle shop..

now iran…

this is the real issue.

40% of iran’s gasoline is imported

a great % of iran’s population is under the age of 25 and hates the mullahs

49% of iran aint persian

with hezbollah being defanged and on the ropes, and their “holy rain of rockets” are less effective than any modern army in the history of war ( 3000 rockets and 40 israelis killed and they are TRYING to kill) Iran has overplayed it’s hand.

i expect a sunni backlash, i see in IRAN a arab uprising, a kurdish uprising, all hell is about to hit iran…

patience.. [my italics]

I think “What Is “Occupation” is onto something here, because I do believe all hell is about to break loose in the Middle East. Between the U.S.’ weak post-invasion strategy in Iraq (fighting the insurgency with one arm tied behind its back so as not to offend the Shiite majority) and the West’s typical limp-wristed response to Iran’s nuclear ambitions (at least up to this point), why shouldn’t Iran feel emboldened to believe that the West simply hasn’t the stomach to punish it significantly for anything it might do? Looking back at the outrageous statements being made by its wacko president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad over the past several months and the world community’s tepid response, coupled with the U.N. Security Council’s typical hesitance to take a hard line against a genuine and growing Middle East threat, Iran clearly feels it has the upper hand both politically and strategically, hence it’s bold admission that it will work to help resupply Hezbollah with missiles for use against Israel.

The question is, how will Israel respond? Is Iran ready to pick a fight, or is this move simply a way for Ahmadinejad to increase his visibility as the unacknowledged leader of the Arab/Muslim/Palestinian struggle against Israel?

Clearly, something is afoot, and all eyes will be on the actions of Syria and Iran in the next week.

Filed in: Politics & World Events by The Great White Shank at 15:30 | Comments Off on A Gathering Storm
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